From The Horse’s Mouth: Week 3 Spotlight games

Two weeks is hardly enough time to clarify the overall picture for 119 programs. But as we enter week three, we should start separating true contenders from preseason pretenders. After some lackluster performances in the second week, there are quite a few programs that need this coming weekend for image repair. The most spotlighted game for week 3 is Ohio State and USC, which is already previewed here. But there are several other games of interest that will make for another exciting weekend of fantastic finishes and upsets.

(13) Kansas at (19) South Florida

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: This game is a perfect indication of how much college football has changed in the last 4 years. 4 years ago, this match up doesn’t even get a mention. If it did, it would be viewed as the often underachieving Jayhawks selecting a cupcake for automatic victory, and would probably be played in Kansas.

JAYHAWKS (2-0)
Last Week: W- Louisiana Tech

I spent the majority of 2007 projecting the Jayhawks to lose games. And at the end of each week, they served up a new plate of crow. The fighting Manginos finished 12-1 with a BCS bowl victory, but I still remain skeptical. Yes, the program has showed major improvement, but there's a question of whether or not the one loss was a reflection of power or scheduling. They can provide further proof of their arrival, by showing the same success this season as last.

Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing is one of the most underrated players in college football, at any position. Somehow, his 33 touchdown passes in 2007 were overshadowed by passers from more prominent football programs. Someone says “Kansas” and the brain registers “hoops, but this program has the opportunity redirect our way of thinking. JayHawk receiver Dezmon Briscoe has been one of the most productive in the nation after just two games played. In two contests, be it against lesser opponents, Briscoe has over 200 yards receiving, while finding the end zone 4 times.

The Jayhawks defense has power on the defensive ends. Both Russell Brorsen and John Larson are on the Lott Trophy watch list. The secondary took a hit with the loss of Aqib Talib, but they still have Chris Harris, who was named Big 12 defensive newcomer of the year in 2007. Starting 10 games as a true freshman, Harris is now alone in the spotlight. They also return a linebacking unit that ranked second in the Big 12 against the run in 2007.

BULLS (2-0)
Last week: W-UCF

By now, everyone should know the story of South Florida. As little as 3 years ago, they were the FBS cupcake, but is hardly the meal to fulfill your sweet tooth today. Upset kings East Carolina are the early talk of 2008. But what some don’t realize is the South Florida Bulls are looking to upset their 4th consecutive ranked opponent, going back to last year.

The Bulls’ offense is all about quarterback Matt Grothe. Last week they barely survived in overtime against UCF, with Grothe not only passing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns, but also adding another 54 on the ground. The ground work should be no surprise, seeing that he has led the Bulls in rushing the past 2 seasons.

South Florida’s 2007 upsets of Auburn and West Virginia came on the might of their defense, and they’ll be challenged against this Jayhawks offense once more. NFL prospect George Selvie becomes the biggest name, with cornerback Mike Jenkins now employed by the Dallas Cowboys.

Xtra Points: Is this going to be my Kansas “proof” game? I don’t think so. South Florida isn’t as balanced offensively as the majority of their Big 12 powers. They could very well walk away with this victory, and though the Bulls are ranked, it still wouldn’t be enough to make me slot them among the more serious contenders.

All Time Series: Only one meeting recorded. Kansas 13, South Florida 7. September 23, 2006.

Michigan at Notre Dame

The Horse’s must see rating: 6

Quickie: Okay, I’ll admit this game is spotlighted on name alone. Neither team is ranked, and the expectations on the season aren’t that great. But it is Michigan and Notre Dame, two of the most storied programs in college football.

FIGHTING IRISH (1-0)
Last Week: W- San Diego State

The Domers’ performance against San Diego State is inexcusable. This was easily an athletic mismatch on paper, but took on the semblance of the Irish battling for their lives against a heavyweight. I was anxious to see if 2008 would be the awakening in South Bend, but the offense appeared to be slumbering, as Rip Van Winkle begins year two of his nap. I’ve watched Notre Dame football for many years, but to see a team that lost to an FCS school in week one stay on the field, and in the game, in Notre Dame’s HOUSE, was clearly a new experience.

Whatever it is that Charlie Weis' Irish are trying to do with the offense isn’t working. I’m not going to blame the athletes, unless you can name a single 5 star player on that Aztec team. Okay, I’ll even settle for a 4 star. If I had to point to an area, it would be the offensive line. You’ll never see the full potential of Jimmy Clausen if you can’t protect him or support him with a decent running game. The Irish managed only 105 rushing yards against the Aztecs. In comparison, FCS Cal Poly rushed for 263 against that same opponent. Jimmy Clausen had more completions (21) than Cal Poly had pass attempts (20) in their victory. If you can’t run the ball, you’ll always struggle to win games, regardless of the quality of the opponent. And when you include 4 turnovers with everything already said, you can see why last week’s game became such a fight when it shouldn’t have been.

WOLVERINES (1-1)
Last Week- W- Miami (Ohio)

Michigan also had their hands full last weekend, but theirs is a different problem. Unlike Notre Dame, who has consistency in the coaching staff and system they play, Michigan is in transition. The roster was gutted by graduation, early NFL entry, and transfers. It’s a program rebuilding from scratch, and going from a pro style offense to a spread. The greatest disadvantage in making such a drastic change in an offensive system, compared to one more gradual, is that it takes more than a year to recruit the proper personnel to run it.

But Michigan is still very strong on the defensive side of the ball, which will allow them to stay in most games. But even the best defenses perform less than average, when inept offenses lean on them repeatedly, leaving them to tire on the field.

Xtra Points: May the best offense win. Or should it be, “may the best defense win?” This one has all the makings of a defensive battle, with the aforementioned struggles of both offenses. Regardless of the winner, the losing coach is sure to get the most heat. And if that coach is Charlie Weis, the leash is shortened to the effect of a choke chain.

All Time Series: Michigan leads 20-14-1
Streak: Michigan has won 2

(2) Georgia at South Carolina: Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford face their first stiff test of 2008. Steve Spurrier is desperately in need of wins, and taking down this SEC Eastern foe will bring an immediate boost in team confidence.

Arkansas at (8) Texas: An old rivalry renewed. This game may be impacted by Hurricane Ike, making for sloppy conditions and limited performances.

(16) Oregon at Purdue: Another Pac 10/Big 10 match for the weekend. Oregon’s offense has appeared unstoppable, though their opening opponents won’t teeter on the top of any power rankings.

UCLA at (18) BYU: At 12 games, BYU owns the longest winning streak in the country. UCLA fell from the rankings without playing a game, providing more proof that voters have short term memory.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech: ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit has been perfect in predicting upsets this season. This week he picks the Jackets to upset the Hokies.

(10) Wisconsin at (21) Fresno State: This would be my pick as a likely upset for the weekend. Pat Hill has played so many BCS conference contenders over the years that his program is hardly viewed as a mid-major.

Don’t forget, Kansas/South Florida is a Friday night prime time game on ESPN. Enjoy!

No DOH-mer this week

I normally drop a new "DOH-mer of the week" on Wednesday or Thursday mornings, but I've decided that this week will be skipped over. Not that I couldn't find anyone worthy, because f#@& ups are plentiful in the sports world. My decision is based on the date, and I felt it inappropriate to be published on the eve or anniversary of 9/11. I could have easily chosen anyone responsible for the cowardly acts of terror against our nation, but I'd rather pay my respects and honor those that lost their lives in 2001, or those men and women that continue to make the ultimate sacrifices on foreign soil today to ensure our safety and freedom.

The DOH-mer will return next week.

Preview: Ohio State at USC

(5) Ohio State at (1) USC

They combine for 18 national championships and 14 Heisman Trophies. Their histories are long and rich with success. They share a seat among the royal court of college football, with the mere mention of their names wakening ghosts of the past to romp again upon autumn playgrounds. They are the Big 10 and Pac 10, juggernauts of the modern game. And since the turn of the century, their victories and accomplishments dwarf the landscape, with only a handful of others appearing on this elite level. They are gladiators in a contest of survival of the fittest, with both looking to cement their names in the halls of history, while traveling a road to a crystal finish. They are Ohio State and Southern California, the Buckeyes and the Trojans, and 1 versus 5. They are the programs, and this is “the game”.

BUCKEYES (2-0)
Last Week: W-Ohio

The question of the past two weeks has been whether or not Beanie Wells will play. Wells, the Heisman contender and biggest playmaker on the Ohio State offense, suffered a foot injury in the season opener against Youngstown State. He sat out the recent victory over Ohio, but the Buckeyes’ offense sputtered to a 26-14 win. Be it looking ahead or bad chemistry, to bring that game to the coliseum on Saturday is to end up on the bad side of a lopsided affair.

How important is Wells in this game? Consider that very few spotlight running backs have performed well against Pete Carroll defenses. Also take into consideration that those programs that were able to establish anything consistent on the ground walked away with victories. Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Mike Hart all failed. Jonathan Stewart had success, as did Cal’s Adam Echemandu. And let’s not forget, Vince Young ran for 200 yards in the 2006 Rose Bowl.

By the end of the 2007 regular season, Quarterback Todd Boeckman was rightfully given Heisman consideration. The Ohio State field general finished with a passer rating of 148.95, throwing for 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while leading his team to the BCS Championship game. He has experienced bodies up front, losing only one member from last season’s offensive line. Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline provide a presence out wide for an offense that doesn’t need to be dynamic, but just be efficient. If Chris Wells can’t go, Mike Wells and Daniel Herron will be asked to carry the load.

The Buckeyes return the nation’s top rated defense against the pass, and 3rd rated against the run. They lost All American Vernon Gholston to the NFL draft, but return all 4 members of the secondary. James Laurinaitis may be the best linebacker in the country, but beside him is another exceptional playmaker in Marcus Freeman. The Buckeyes also feature one of the top rated cornerbacks in the nation in Malcolm Jenkins, according to mock gurus and NFL scouts. This is the strength of the program, and the unit that can carry the Buckeyes to victory.

TROJANS (1-0)
Last week: Bye

USC opened the season impressive. Well, at least it appeared to be. When you consider their 52-7 victory over Virginia in the opener, then realize the Wahoos only managed a 16-0 victory over Richmond in week two, it takes a little luster off the accomplishment. But the biggest benefit the Trojans received after their opening week game wasn’t a boost in the rankings or escalated publicity. It was the Bye week that followed.

Not only has Pete Carroll had two weeks to prepare, but the Trojans received an additional week to get healthy. They go into Saturday’s contest as a stronger group, after several players were limited with injuries in the week one. Pete Carroll is 11-2 in games following a Bye week. Overall, he’s 16-5 in games with more than a week to prepare. He’s 4-0 against the the Big 10. The Trojans haven’t lost to a Big 10 opponent since Penn State in 1996, and haven’t lost to Ohio State since the 1974 Rose Bowl. The two programs last met in 1990, where USC posted a 35-26 victory in Columbus. USC is 31-1 in their last 32 home games, and Ohio State hasn’t won in the Coliseum since 1946.

QB Mark Sanchez will accept the challenge the OSU defense will bring. Again, protection becomes the key. If given time, navigation up and down the field comes easily, considering the choice of playmakers provided on the roster. Arkansas transfer Damian Williams appears to have the most chemistry with the new Trojan quarterback, and may receive the start, with Vidal Hazelton bothered by an ankle injury. The "running back by committee" will continue, with C.J Gable likely to receive the start again on Saturday, being the best pass blocker of the group. The touches for Joe McKnight will come in every way and every direction, with the fresh legs of Stafon Johnson continually rotated in and out to wear down defensive fronts.

Just as Ohio State, the defense is the anchor of this USC team. What the Buckeyes will see is speed at every position, the type of speed they saw against their BCS Championship opponents from the SEC. Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing aim to prove their linebacking corps is the most talented in the nation, with Safety Taylor Mays leading a well equipped secondary. LB Luther Brown is returning from injury to fill the thin position behind Maualuga. Carroll uses a variety of blitz packages, which is why it's so important for opponents to not only establish the run, but to also not fall behind.

ANALYSIS

At No. 5, this is the highest ranked Buckeyes team to face the Trojans since top ranked Ohio State fell to USC 17-16 in the 1980 Rose Bowl. USC is 4-0-1 when it is ranked higher in the AP poll than Ohio State. The Trojans are 66-5-2 in games when they are the top ranked team in the nation. USC (82) is 4th on the all time list for programs ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, behind Notre Dame (89), Oklahoma (86) and Ohio State (86).

This is a must win for each team, with the winner gaining a better grip on a run towards the BCS Championship game. But of the two programs, Ohio State is most needy. The Buckeyes have suffered criticism over the past couple of years, because of their championship game failures. The media and fans have picked them apart, almost as if everyone forgot the Buckeyes were National Champions as recent as 2002.

Even with Pete Carroll’s record over Big 1O opponents, and the Trojans not threatened in any, Ohio State provides a different beast. There’s a definite edge in experience, which could offset the Trojans edge in home field advantage. Big games aren’t a new experience for neither team nor coach. And this games victor will be the best prepared and the one making the fewest errors. The X-factor may possibly be Buckeyes' freshman QB Terrelle Pryor, whose mobility can be utilized to provide more options. There is a theory across the college football world that USC tends to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. This theory obviously emerged after Vince Young ran wild, but Dennis Dixon posted just one victory against the Trojans, Jake Locker has yet to win, just as Isaiah Stanback failed before him. And if you happened to catch the 2008 Rose Bowl, Juice Williams was a non factor.

All Time Series: USC leads 11-9-1
Streak: USC has won 5 straight

Is it Cassel or Rodgers under the most pressure?

I can’t think of any NFL quarterbacks that will be under more pressure than both Matt Cassel and Aaron Rodgers. Rookies may feel pressure, but coaches expect mistakes in the learning process and are often willing to sacrifice a season so lessons can be learned. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan were brilliant in their openers, and perhaps felt they were playing under pressure. But when it comes to Cassel and Rodgers, two former Pac 10 hurlers, there is no denying that their situations have thrown them under the microscope, with pressure built to explode, before taking a starting snap in 2008.

Rodgers has the unlikely task of replacing an NFL legend. That pressure would have been somewhat lessened, if not for Brett Favre’s name appearing on the roster for the New York Jets. A retired Brett Favre would have closed a chapter on a local hero, giving Rodgers the opportunity to begin his own. But an active Brett Favre, wearing the green of another franchise, leaves the new Green Bay quarterback open to comparison and burdened with expectations.

As it stands today, the biggest victory in the career of Aaron Rodgers came on September 27, 2003, as he led his Cal Golden Bears to an unlikely upset over top ranked USC. Across the field on the opposing sideline, Matt Leinart had the worst game of his collegiate career. And watching it all happen from the bench, Matt Cassel sat waiting his turn.

Rewind 2 games before that September date, and Cassel thought he was going to lead the Trojans in 2003. He was passed over, and had limited playing time that came as clean up duty in Southern Cal blowouts, the same role he played in New England. He watched conference hurlers such as Derek Anderson, Trent Edwards, Kellen Clemens, and Andrew Walter flourish on their amateur fields, and then receive opportunities in the NFL. But for the undrafted Cassel, it remained a waiting game. With the Patriots losing Tom Brady for the remainder of this 2008 season, Cassel will be making his first start since Chatsworth High School. Add another headliner for the Southern California city....Charles Manson, The porn industry, Kevin Spacey, Val Kilmer, and MATT CASSEL.

Which of these two Pac 10 quarterbacks is in the greater pressure cooker? For me, the answer is pretty simple. It has to be Matt Cassel. The heat is turned up on both, but the expectations in Green Bay are less than New England. Cassel inherits a team riding a 20 game regular season win streak that was only seconds away from a perfect season and another Lombardi Trophy. They are Superbowl favorites again in 2008. Rodgers replaces a legend, but though he was effective, he was an old Brett Favre. Cassel replaces Tom Brady in his prime, arguably the league’s greatest passer over the past few years. Rodgers can lose a game and get a pass, but if Cassel loses one, Beantown goes into a panic. Losing in the regular season hasn’t occurred since 2006. No matter what factors lead to a negative showing on future scoreboards, the thinking will always be that "Brady would have won that game".

It’s a tough situation for both, but when you enter the league backing up Superstars, and they are lost to injury, retirement or trade, the immense heat of public opinion can bring sweat to the brow of the newest faces; before they take a single snap.