Showing posts with label Horse's mouth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horse's mouth. Show all posts

Thursday, October 23, 2008

From The Horse’s Mouth- Week 9 Spotlight Games


With the preliminary BCS standings revealed, the landscape has a different look. For now on, all digits preceding a program’s name will reflect their position in the BCS standing, and no longer represent positions in the AP poll. As always, the AP may come into play down the stretch, if it appears college football may be headed towards a split title. But until then, the AP poll is irrelevant, as its data is not part of the BCS equation.

(3) Penn State at (9) Ohio State

The horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: Are we still doubting the legitimacy of the Nittany Lions championship contention? Here’s a golden opportunity to strengthen their worth and remove those doubts. The Buckeyes have regained their swagger and are riding the momentum from last week’s drubbing of Michigan State. Preseason analysts claimed the Big 10 title runs through Columbus. Let’s see if Joe Pa can come out clean on the other side, leaving Tressel and Ohio State in his rearview.

NITTANY LIONS (8-0)
Last week- W- Michigan

Penn State’s record remains unscathed, largely due to the winning of key position battles that enable them to bury their opponents. Their foes have been overpowered at the skill positions, as well as in the trenches. One key match up this week will be Jordan Norwood looking to get off the block and find space against NFL first round corner prospect Malcolm Jenkins. Appearing as the favorite target for quarterback Daryll Clark, Norwood was limited to just 4 catches and 28 yards in last week’s victory, and must have more production for the Lions to be positioned for this win. Just as the sturdy Buckeyes defense limited Michigan State’s Javon Ringer, running the ball may again be troublesome for this week’s opponent, and an elscalation of their season's passing attempts and yardage may be the difference between winning and losing.

BUCKEYES (7-1)
Last Week: W-Michigan State

It’s homecoming in Columbus, and Ohio State hasn’t lost one of these games since 2001. They're coming off their most impressive victory of the season, after appearing sluggish in earlier weeks. Quarterback controversy is squashed (for the moment), and the roster is filled with believers again. The Buckeyes enter Saturday’s game ranked 10th in the nation defensively, a tribute to the unit that has carried them this far. The offensive unit holds concern, with the inconsistent play of inexperienced freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Though he has slowly showed signs of improvement, one has to wonder if he’s improved enough to conquer these incoming Lions. A healthy Chris Wells should relieve some of the strain placed on the passing game in previous weeks, allowing the Buckeyes a more methodical approach to move the sticks.

Xtra Points: Defensive strength outweighs offensive presence, and I pick the Buckeyes to prevail victorious for their 7th straight homecoming. With a switch in venue, I’d give the opposite choice, but I believe Ohio State’s young signal caller will find comfort in the friendly confines of the Shoe, allowing him to play smart and efficient in this high profile game.

All Time Series: Buckeyes lead 12-11
Streak: Buckeyes won 2

(6) Oklahoma State at (1) Texas- Gundy’s program is on a magical ride, but it stops in Austin. The Horns should roll the Cowboys.

Auburn at West Virginia- Before the season began, this was one hell of game that would be played with BCS implications. Know I’m not really sure what it is, but you can catch in airing Thursday night on ESPN.

(8) Texas Tech at (23) Kansas- If you’re looking for a Big 12 shootout, here it is. This game features the nation’s 58th and 65th ranked defenses, and the 2nd and 14th ranked offenses.

(7) Georgia at (13) LSU- The loser is officially knocked out of the BCS championship race, but would still remain hopeful to win the SEC.

(5) USC at Arizona- The Sand Trap

Notre Dame at Washington- Come on now! It’s the “Ty Bowl”!

UCLA at California- Two schools with the same fight song. That has to be annoying to listen to in the stands.

Upset special- Virginia over (18) Georgia Tech, (23) Kansas over (8) Texas Tech, (9) Ohio State over (3) Penn State

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

From the Horse’s Mouth: Week 7 Spotlight Games


Enter college football’s 7th week and let the separation begin. There are still a few stragglers, with games being played out of conference, but we’re mostly digging deeper into conference play and aligning the conference powers. The most anticipated game of the weekend is the top five match played along the Red River, which is already previewed here. But there are other important games on the schedule with BCS implications.

(4) LSU at (11) Florida

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: The Gators followed up their upset loss to Ole Miss by thrashing defenseless Arkansas last week. On Saturday, Urban Meyer’s high powered offense welcomes the nation’s 14th ranked defense to the swamp.

TIGERS (4-0)
Last week-W-Mississippi State

When you look at the defending national champions, you see Les Miles’ squad still sitting quietly among the nation’s top 5 and with a leg up in the SEC west. What you don’t see is a team still virtually untested and searching for an identity. Florida will represent the best offense the Tigers have seen all year, after colliding with FCS Appalachian State, North Texas (0-5), Mississippi State (1-4), and 20th ranked Auburn. The Auburn Tigers provided a signature victory, but it’s a team that ranks 104th in the nation in offense.

GATORS (4-1)
Last Week-W-Arkansas

The Gators are averaging 36 points per game, which is tops in the SEC. The dynamic Percy Harvin has missed two practices, and is still wearing a protective boot, but is listed as probable for Saturday’s game. Running back Emmanuel Moody (ankle) is doubtful. Their opponent represents the top offense in the SEC, with a between the tackles pounding attack. The Florida defense allows less than 100 yards rushing per game, and will find it necessary to continue that success to win this ballgame.

Xtra Points: In a meeting between the last two BCS national champions, the difference in this game may be on special teams and field position. The Gators average nearly 28 yards per return, and LSU’s Trindon Holiday is second in the nation in punt returns (25.14).

All Time series: Gators lead 28-23-3
Streak: Tigers won 1


(17) Oklahoma State at (3) Missouri- Everyone talks about Mizzou. No one talks about Oklahoma State. This game will have just as much impact on the BCS picture as the one being played in Texas.

(6) Penn State at Wisconsin- Look who’s creeping up the Chart. It’s Joe Pa and his Nittany Lions. If they can escape Camp Randall Stadium, with the other games being played, PSU will be sitting pretty in the polls.

Tennessee at (10) Georgia- Would Fulmer dare fall to 2-4 and remain winless? It isn't that the Vols haven't recorded a victory over an SEC opponent, but they've also yet to beat an opponent from a BCS conference. Imagine needing a must-win and having to earn it between the hedges.

Notre Dame at (22) North Carolina- For the first time in history, a 4-1 Irish team is unranked. Jimmy Clausen has matured, but now faces the national leaders in interceptions.

Clemson at (21) Wake Forest- This is a Thursday night game. Why are ranked teams still playing on Thursdays? The outcome is rarely a good one.

New Mexico at (9) BYU- You see names of BYU opponents and figure they may just skate their way through the schedule. That’s not true, because the Mountain West is a solid conference.

Arizona State at (8) USC- With both Rudy Carpenter and Mark Sanchez listed as day-to-day, this is shaping up to be a battle of backup quarterbacks.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

From the Horse’s Mouth- Week 5 Spotlight games


If you enjoyed week 4, this week gets even better. We get two SEC heavyweights battling again, a couple of contests that will stand large in deciding the Big 10, and a fallen program facing another that appears to be rising.

(8) Alabama at (3) Georgia


The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: The Georgia Bulldogs figured to have some bumps in the road towards an SEC championship and possible appearance in the BCS title game, but I doubt playing an Alabama team ranked in the top 10 in week 5 was one of the expectations. The overachieving Tide are now among the nation’s elite and appear as the Dogs’ second SEC foe and first AP ranked opponent of the season.

BULLDOGS (3-0)
Last week- W-Arizona State (2-2)

Georgia is often advertised as “Knowshon Moreno and the Bulldogs”, but there’s much more than that. Their trip to the desert not only earned the respect of western viewers, but gave us an opportunity to learn more about the third ranked team in the nation. Although Moreno has more than lived up to the hype, equally impressive is the poise of QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford appears as a solid first round draft prospect, commanding the Bulldogs offense with a combination of skill and leadership. A player overlooked in all the mass publicity is freshman wide receiver AJ Green, who caught 8 passes for 159 yards in Saturday’s victory over the Sun Devils. Tagged as a freshman, Green has the appearance of someone that has being playing the college game for years, and is easily an overlooked weapon of the offense. The Bulldogs defense is solid, making each opponent fight for each yard gained. They defend the ends well, but don't appear to have that same pressure up the middle as they did in 2007.

TIDE (3-0)
Last week: W-Arkansas (2-1)

Nick Saban has said to hell with a rebuilding plan, and uses the better motto of “the time is now”. After opening impressively against Clemson, the Tide has continued to roll. They’ve done it with a mixture of youth and experience, and an offense that continues to put up big numbers. Although we weren’t really sure what to expect from the Tide in 2008, they may have found something in running back Gary Coffee. Coffee ripped an Arkansas defense on Saturday for 162 yards, averaging more than 16 yards per carry. When the backs are churning, it relieves the stress from QB John Parker Wilson, and phenomenal passing statistics aren’t necessary to earn victories. A pressuring defense and workmanlike offense has Alabama sitting undefeated and ready for more.

Xtra Points: The team most effective in stopping the run is the team that will win this game. The quarterback match up isn’t favorable, with Matthew Stafford having a clear edge, so it’s more important for the Tide to establish something on the ground than be put in a position where a victory would be riding on Wilson's arm.

All Time Series: Alabama leads 35-25-4
Streak: Georgia won 3

(22) Illinois at (12) Penn State


The Horse’s must see rating: 9

Quickie: After watching Ohio State over the course of the first few weeks, it’s clear that the Big 10 race is wide open. Penn State remains my favorite, and they’ll receive their first true test in this Big 10 conference opener.

NITTANY LIONS (4-0)
Last Week: W-Temple (1-3)

Joe Pa’s Lions may have off field issues, but on field, everything appears to be clicking. Though their first 4 opponents combine for a record of just 5-10, Penn State made quick work of each, as they should. Their defense has been stingy, while the offense has recorded a low of 45 points and high of 66. The 40 or more points scored in each of the first 4 games are a school record. Powered by the offensive line, sophomore running back Evan Royster has found the end zone 7 times in the 4 games played. That line has also offered protection for QB Daryll Clark, who has only been sacked twice in 4 weekends. In comparison, Penn State sacked Temple quarterbacks 7 times in Saturday’s 45-3 rout of the Owls.

FIGHTING ILLINI (2-1)
Last Week: W-Louisiana Lafayette (1-2)

The Illini have the early season out of conference loss to Mizzou, but still remain in the running for the Big 10 title, and anything else, if others begin to stumble before them. It’s been an up and down season for QB Juice Williams, who has thrown for 7 touchdowns but also been picked 5 times. His most impressive passing day came in the loss to Missouri, where he wracked up 451 yards in the air and 5 of those touchdown tosses. But since the opener, he hasn’t thrown for more than 150 in any game, and is on the wrong side of the touchdown to interception ratio (2/3). The Jekyll and Hyde act doesn’t only represent the Illini QB, it’s descriptive of the program. After appearing impressive in the opener, though they did lose, this team struggled last week to edge Louisiana Lafayette. Now they head to the Big 10 opener and we wonder which team will show up.

Xtra Points: If there is a team that plays according to their competition, it would be Illinois. Going to Happy Valley to play the 12th ranked Nittany Lions, they better bring their “A” game, and leave the gameplan from last week at home. If Williams fails to give the true look of a quarterback again this week, the Illini will suffer a lopsided defeat.

All Time Series: Penn State leads 12-3
Streak: Illinois won 1

(9) Wisconsin at Michigan: The wolverines have a streak in jeopardy. Michigan has won 22 consecutive Big 10 home openers, and with a rebuilding program and a ranked opponent coming in, it will be difficult to maintain.

Minnesota at (14) Ohio State: The Gophers are the surprise team, opening 4-0. The Buckeyes are another surprise, as the experience of the roster hasn’t proven to equate to dominance on the field. They now weigh their hopes on the inexperience of freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

Arkansas at (7) Texas: An old rivalry renewed, but shouldn’t prove to be much of a battle. Look for the Horns to win this one big.

Tennessee at (15) Auburn: The coach’s seat in Knoxville has been uncomfortable. Look for the tigers to light a match.

(25) Fresno State at UCLA: The Pac 10 should take another mid-major hit here. For the first time in 44 years, a Bruins offense has failed to score a touchdown in back-to-back games. And this is occurring with Norm Chow as the offensive coordinator.

Colorado at Florida State: The Buffs are undefeated and for real. The Noles appeared to be real, until they finally played a program from the FBS.

Purdue at Notre Dame: For two years now, the Boilermakers have struggled to hold leads. The Irish struggle to get ahead. Don’t let the halftime score fool you. Despite what it may read early, this one won't be over until the fourth.

(24) TCU at (2) Oklahoma: Can the Mountain West continue to do some damage? Nah. I really doubt it happens against Bob Stoops.

(1)USC at Oregon State: The Trojans return to the scene of the crime. Preview here.

Virginia Tech at Nebraska: A program rising, and another falling? Guess which is which, and you can probably predict the outcome.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

From The Horse’s Mouth: Week 4 Spotlight games


I actually like what the fourth week has in store, because not only does it bring some key conference games involving both the SEC east and west, it also combines some out of conference match ups between some big name programs. We have a Florida State team that has climbed back into the rankings and will receive their first true test of the season, and an entire group of mid majors continuing their quest to invade the BCS.

(3) Georgia at Arizona State

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: For the first time since Eisenhower was president, The Georgia Bulldogs will play a regular season game in the western time zone. The last trip came in 1960, where they fell 10-3 to USC in the Los Angeles Coliseum. They face a Sun Devils team fresh off an upset loss to UNLV that pushed them out of the AP top 25, and leaves them hanging by a thread in the coaches’ poll.

SUN DEVILS (2-1)
Last Week: L-UNLV

Anyone reading me over the course of 2007 knows I had the Sun Devils consistently on “fraud alert”. 2007 featured 8 games at home, bottom of the barrel out of conference opponents, and a loss to each power opponent they played.

QB Rudy Carpenter is a pro prospect, and near the top of the 2009 class at his position. But seldom do we get a good look at his abilities, because his line buckles and fails often. Carpenter was sacked 58 times last season, and has already eaten turf 5 times through the first 3 games of 2008.

BULLDOGS (3-0)
Last week: W-South Carolina

Georgia faced a challenge against a stiff South Carolina defense on Saturday. The Gamecocks limited the Dogs to 289 yards of offense, and allowed running sensation Knowshon Moreno just 79 yards on 20 carries.

The Bulldogs’ pass defense currently ranks 11th of the 12 SEC programs (263.3 ypg), and will face a Sun Devils passing offense ranked 1st in the Pac 10 (324.7). Pressuring the quarterback is of the utmost importance, as Dennis Erickson will likely go back to airing it out after losing in an upset to the Rebels, with the Devils altering the game plan and showing a big increase in rushing attempts and decrease in pass attempts. Expect them to go back to their strength, and Georgia to flex theirs. Georgia’s 42 sacks led the SEC last year, and can play a major role against a program that still struggles to protect their quarterback.

Xtra Points: I’ve seen some funny things happen in the Arizona desert. The last SEC program to visit Tempe was LSU in 2005. It took a tremendous comeback and late fourth quarter score for the 5th ranked Tigers to edge the 15th ranked Sun Devils in a game that ended 35-31, and saw an LSU defense surrender 560 yards of offense to the Devils. The tone should be set early. And if ASU opens by being overpowered by the Georgia defensive front, Carpenter is in for a very long day.

All Time Series: No prior meetings.

(4) Florida at Tennessee

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: As rumor had it, it didn’t matter where you coached before or the success you had, because no coach could just walk into the SEC and take over. Well, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and Les Miles all have. It took Saban just 4 years to not only win the SEC, but also a national championship. It took Les Miles just 3, and as little as 2 for Urban Meyer. Meyer now looks to make it 4 straight victories over Tennessee’s Phillip Fulmer.

GATORS (2-0)
Last Week: BYE

The book on the 2008 Gators was an explosive offense with a suspect defense. The offense was supposed to offer more firepower, with an addition of a running game. I’m still waiting to see that ground game, because they haven’t showed much of it. Emannuel Moody is obviously buried deep in Meyer’s doghouse, but is expected to have more carries against the Vols than he has all season. That season total for Moody is “2”. Percy Harvin was limited in his first game back, either by the Miami defense or the rust of sitting out for weeks. I expect a more productive game from Harvin against the Vols, as he’s slowly worked back into the rhythm.

VOLUNTEERS (1-1)
Last Week- W- UAB

The Vols are still searching for an identity. Are they the preseason power as reflected in the polls, or the team dominated in the trenches by UCLA in week one? The victory over UAB still leaves these men behind the mask, and they should reveal their true faces on Saturday. Neyland Stadium offers a small advantage, as the Gators are 2-3 in their last 5 games away from the swamp (losses to Michigan, LSU, Georgia). Even in their road victories, the Gators aren’t nearly as impressive as they are on their home field.

Xtra Points: Arian Foster and the Vols ground game could be the key if Fulmer is to end the streak. In 3 losses to Florida, Tennessee has no runs of more than 6 yards. A 1-2 start would be awful in Knoxville, and though I don’t like to call a game in the fourth week a “must win”, for Tennessee, this is one.

All Time Series: Tennessee leads 19-18
Streak: Florida won 3

(6) LSU at (10) Auburn- The two teams played a thriller last year that ended with Matt Flynn finding a receiver in the end zone with time running out. I’m not sure this one will be as classic, with that new spread offense at Auburn looking about the same as the one in Michigan.

Notre Dame at Michigan State- The Irish can match their win total of a year ago. The Spartans can continue their ownership of the Boys from South Bend.

Miami at Texas A&M- As a ranked team, the Aggies were dominated by the Canes in 2007. Toss out the numbers next to the names, and expect more of the same.

(18) Wake Forest at (24) Florida State- Are the Noles back? They will answer that on Saturday.

(21) WVU at Colorado- In the thin mountain air, have no fear of Colorado coach Dan Hawkins. Fear his son, Cody, the Buff’s quarterback, instead.

(20) Utah at Air Force- What? Are you still sleeping on the Falcons?

Portland State at Washington State- Why is this game listed? It’s because I believe Washington State is bad enough to lose to this team.


Boise State at (17) Oregon- This game has upset written all over it. Oregon is limited to using their 3rd and 4th team quarterbacks. That’s about the same as UCLA, and things aren’t working well for the Bruins.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

From The Horse’s Mouth: Week 2 Spotlight games


The second week of the college season isn’t giving us a better showing on the schedule. It’s another week built for blowouts and shutouts, but there’s always the potential for those unexpected occurrences, as witnessed in the opener.

Miami at (5) Florida

The Horse’s must see rating: 7

Quickie: This would be one hell of a game, if we rewound the clock to 2001. But regardless, any division-I battle for the state of Florida has to be spotlighted. The Canes are looking for long lost respect and a return to the upper echelon of college football. As for the Gators, they’re just looking for another national championship, which would mark their second in 3 years.

CANES (1-0)
Last opponent: W-Charleston Southern

Miami showed patience in Randy Shannon’s first year, but I’ll guarantee that in 2008 his ass will experience a burning sensation that penicillin will not cure. Winning is the only remedy, and the victories must come often. It wasn’t just the 5-7 season that brought the grumblings. It was how they lost. Of the 119 division-I programs, Miami finished 110th in total offense. Passing ranked them in the ACC cellar. And if they were looking for something to build on in 2008, losing 48-0 to Virginia Tech in the final game wasn’t the way to do it.

QB Robert Mavre will return for game 2, after sitting out the Canes 52-7 victory over Charleston Southern with a suspension. Even without their named starter active, Miami finished with 416 yards of offense, but that’s hardly a fair measuring stick of improvement, when those yards are accumulated against a program from the football championship subdivision. To have any chance against the Gators, the Cane’s must utilize the talents of running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper, who combined for 1264 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2007, despite James being plagued by injury.

GATORS (1-0)
Last Opponent: W-Hawaii

What do you give a man that has everything? Tim Tebow has a conference championship ring, national championship ring, and a Heisman Trophy. Players dream of collecting just one of those items in their collegiate careers, and Florida’s junior quarterback already has all three. When the bar is set that high, the next goal would be a repeat of all three, only this time posting an undefeated mark. With the establishment of a running game, Tebow can lighten his offensive load, and the Gators offense can show more balance. Jeremy Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody will provide the legs, giving Tebow more of a true passer look. WR Percy Harvin is probable for Saturday’s game, bringing his game breaking abilities back to the field, after missing time rehabilitating from heel surgery.

Xtra Points: Bernie Kosar was the last freshman to start quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes, and Randy Shannon will now start two in consecutive weeks. The inexperience at the position will hurt them, as the lone weakness for the Gators is the secondary. If you can’t exploit Florida’s softest unit, you can’t win this game. Defensive coordinators bring the house against first year quarterbacks, and I expect the Gators to do the same. Miami has just 11 starters returning from last years squad, and the youth will show on the field.

All Time Series: Miami leads 28-25
Streak: Miami has won 6 straight

(8) West Virginia at East Carolina

The Horse’s must see rating: 7

Quickie: If not for the Pirates’ upset victory over Virginia Tech, this game probably wouldn’t be on the list, but it’s suddenly intriguing. East Carolina has proved itself against a ranked BCS opponent. West Virginia hasn’t. The Pirates are at home and confident, and we’re still waiting to see the true look of Bill Stewart’s 2008 Mountaineers.

MOUNTAINEERS (1-0)
Last Opponent: W-Villanova

Even if it was against lowly Villanova, Pat White has temporarily silenced his critics. The quarterback actually looked like one, powering the Mountaineers offense on the strength of his arm, instead of the trampling with his legs that we’re accustomed to. He achieved career highs in attempts, completions, and touchdowns in the 48-21 victory.

The West Virginia defense spent their Saturday defending the run, as the Wildcats remained committed to pounding the rock with 50 rushing attempts. They can expect more of the same against East Carolina, who showed 41 rushes against the Hokies to just 25 pass attempts. The Mountaineers show a lot of man-to-man coverage, and East Carolina may get some good looks down field, but beware the closing speed in the West Virginia secondary.

PIRATES (1-0)
Last Opponent: W-Virginia Tech

One ranked opponent down, with another on the way. Quarterback Patrick Pickney didn’t have eye catching numbers against Virginia Tech, but a stat that jumps out is no interceptions against that Hokies defense. It will take another mistake free performance against WVU to give his team an opportunity to record their second upset in consecutive weeks. Brandon Simmons and Jonathan Williams will carry the majority of the load, hoping to use their legs to set the Pirates up with more manageable third-and-short situations. No back is a comparable replacement for the departed Chris Johnson and his 4.2 speed, but as a unit, each brings a different dimension to the running game.

The Pirates defensive unit returns 9 starters, including all 4 defensive linemen. C.J. Wilson is the star of the group, and a legitimate Pro prospect. Together they'll fill running lanes and make West Virginia earn every yard. But as good as the line is against the run, they don’t offer much of a pass rush. Their 27 sacks in 2007 ranked them last in conference USA and 60th nationally. If they have a repeat performance of their failure to reach opposing quarterbacks, Pat White may again be staring at big passing numbers.

Xtra Points: If East Carolina pulls this off, they will without a doubt be ranked in next week’s top 25. If West Virginia loses this game, the warm reception for new coach Bill Stewart will quickly move to a chill.

All Time Series: WVU leads 17-2
Streak: WVU won 7 straight

Oregon State at (19) Penn State: The Beavers fumbled away an opportunity to open on a high note, falling to Stanford in the opener. We get to see what PSU is made of, after they rolled easily last week against the FCS.

Ole Miss at (20) Wake Forest: The ACC is said to be bad, while the SEC is said to be the best from “top to bottom”. Mississippi State’s opening loss to Louisiana Tech surely doesn’t support the SEC theory, but Ole Miss gives them another opportunity to prove it.

Central Michigan at (2) Georgia: The Bulldogs continue to lose key players, and it will be interesting to see what QB Dan LeFevour can do, if given time to throw. Colt Brennan was the highly touted mid-major slinger last year, and the Bulldogs didn’t allow him to breathe.

San Diego Sate at Notre Dame: Anxious to see what the Irish look like in 2008? You won’t find out here. Keep in mind that San Diego State lost to FCS Cal Poly San Luis Obispo in their opener.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh: For some strange reason, I like Turner Gill over the ‘stache.

It should be another entertaining week on the college gridiron. But as we watch, let us also keep the storm victims of Southern coast and gulf areas in our thoughts and prayers.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

From The Horse’s Mouth: Week 1 Spotlight games


The long grueling wait is finally over, and instead of asking questions, debating futures, and embarking on conference war discussions, we can finally receive some answers on the field. Typical of the opening week, there’s a plethora of wood-shed whackings scheduled. But if you sift through those games played for a program’s monetary gains, you’ll find a couple of intriguing matches that can quickly rattle the preseason rankings and affect the title chase.


(24) Alabama at (9) Clemson

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: Nick Saban has won his share of big games, and finds himself opening as an underdog on the road. Tommy Bowden’s Tigers now have a top 10 ranking, but can he strip his title of “choke” artist?

Tigers: Cullen Harper returns to build on his national notoriety. The Clemson QB led the team to a 9-4 record in 2007, completing 65% of his passes, while throwing for 2,991, 27 TDs, and only 10 picks. He’s joined by his thunder and lightning backfield of C.J. Spiller and James Davis, which combined for 1,832 yards and 13 scores. Davis nearly entered April’s draft, but his decision brings his 5 yard per carry average back to school. Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham will be the receiving targets of Harper, with the speedster Jacoby Ford rejoining the group after suffering a broken ankle last November. If there’s an offensive weakness, it would be a line that only returns Thomas Austin at center.

Seven Starters return on the Clemson defense, but the unit lost all 3 starting linebackers, which are the key pieces to any defense. Another blow is on the defensive line, in losing the senior leadership of Rashaad Jackson for at least half the season.

Tide: Alabama’s bowl victory over Colorado pushed the program over .500 (7-6) in 2007. Now ready to begin his second year, Nick Saban brings back John Parker Wilson, the Tide’s single season passing leader in yards (2,707) and touchdowns (17). But despite the 2007 achievement, Wilson still ranked 92nd in the nation in passing efficiency. If the tide is looking to build on Saban’s first year, the first step will be reducing the number of mistakes made by Wilson. Legging it out will be returning starter Terry Grant, who ran for 891 and 8 TDs last year. They’ve lost some depth at receiver, including D.J. Hall, but Bama welcomes highly touted freshman Julio Jones. The Tide shows strength up front, with top NFL draft prospect Andre Smith, and the return of Antoine Caldwell, who decided against early entry into the 2008 draft.

On the defensive side, Rashard Johnson led the team with 6 interceptions a year ago, but the secondary remains questionable. Javier Arenas will try to establish himself as a true cornerback and strip the label of being a primary special teams player. At 5’9, expect him to be picked on in matchups against Clemson’s bigger receivers.

Xtra Points: Tommy Bowden is in a position to prove his worth. On the other hand, Saban can improve on his football genius by pulling a victory, despite using an “average at best defense” against one of the nation’s top offenses. The Tide should look to control the tempo early, which could leave them positioned for a fantastic finish.

All Time Series: Bama leads 11-2
Streak: Bama has won 11 straight


(20) Illinois at (6) Missouri

The Horse’s must see rating: 10

Quickie: If you’re Mizzou, you’re proud of your past year’s achievements, but also angry. Finishing 12-2, and beating Kansas and Illinois, the Tigers were BCS bowl snubs, with the defeated Jayhawks and Illini receiving the BCS prizes. If you’re Illinois, you’re probably not feeling like you claimed any reward, after being rocked by USC in the Rose Bowl. Both teams enter 2008 with more to prove.

Tigers: Heisman finalist Chase Daniel leads his squad into 2008, after appearing out of nowhere in ’07. Daniel threw for over 300 yards in 8 games last season, and recorded a season total of 33 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His favorite target, WR Jeremy Maclin is the Tigers’ do-it-all version of Florida’s Percy Harvin, with 2,800 all purpose yards and 16 TDs in 2007. The only question for the offense would be the replacement of running back Tony Temple, but Temple was often injured and didn’t get much significant play last season. Carrying the load will be Jimmy Jackson and Derrick Washington, who should get good looks with the Tigers spreading defenses.

Mizzou's defense isn't spectacular, but manage to get the job done. Defensive stars would include LB Sean Witherspoon and CB William Moore, but this is a unit that failed to put the clamps on the Sooners twice last year, amounting to the Tigers’ only two losses, and costing them the Big 12 title and a BCS bowl bid.

Illini: Juice Williams became a household name, and he’ll have to play bigger than ever in 2008. Lost from the Illini production is running back Rashard Mendenhall and his nearly 1700 rushing yards and 17 TDs. He’s being replaced (if there is such a thing) by Daniel Dufrane (6.7 yard average on 43 carries in ’07), but there isn’t much optimism. In the Spring game, Illini runners rushed for -11 yards, and they remain a work in progress. Illinois led the Big 10 in rushing last year, with QB Juice Williams chipping in 755 yards of that total. If they plan on making any noise, they’ll have to improve on his 1,743 passing yards, which is easier said than done, if you have no running attack.

The Defensive line is the strength of the Illini, returning 3 starters and 8 players rotated into those positions last year. The ends alone accounted for 21.5 sacks, with Will Davis providing 12.5 tackles for loss. A capable secondary adds support, featuring Thorpe award semifinalist Vontae Davis. Combined with Dere Hicks and Miami Thomas, the trio collected 7 interceptions in 2007.

Xtra Points: This year’s venue changes in Missouri’s favor, and unfavorable changes appear on the Illinois roster. The entire outlook appears as “different year, same result”, with a more experienced and fine tuned Tigers team again staring at victory.

All Time Series: Mizzou leads 14-7
Streak: Mizzou has won 3 straight

NOTABLES

Applachian State at (7) LSU: Can lightning strike twice? Division I-aa champions meet Division I champions in Baton Rouge. After the shocker in Ann Arbor last year, the Mountaineers will enter with confidence. Appy State QB Armanti Edwards begins his campaign for the Heisman Trophy.

(18) Tennessee at UCLA: For the Vols, a return to California is a return to the scene of the crime, after the opening debacle against Cal last year. UCLA may have a coaching dream team, but don’t have a roster to do much with them. They’ll start a QB with little preparation, and this one can get ugly in a hurry. Many early projections show UCLA as a 5-7 team at best, and if Fulmer manages to somehow lose to these unprepared early season Bruins, he should be forced to walk back to Knoxville.

Washington at (21) Oregon: Psst! For all of you outside of the Western time zone, this is a rivalry game. The two programs hate each other.

Kentucky at Louisville: Speaking of hate…state bragging rights are on the line. Need I say more?

Utah at Michigan: Your first glance at the Rodriguez Wolverines. Don’t sleep on the Utes. They have a nice squad. I wonder who the people in West Virginia will be rooting for?

(3) USC at Virginia: The Trojans have played in 34 states, and also played in Japan. This will be their first game ever in the State of Virginia. Preview Here

UC Davis at San Jose State: Yes, I’m kidding!

I wish you all a happy and Safe Labor Day weekend. Enjoy the games.